The wave of kindergartens closures has begun in China
How to effectively increase the willingness to have children?
In 2023, China's healthcare and education systems were the first to bear the brunt of the impact caused by the population decline.
To describe the severity of this situation, it can be said that it requires the entire nation to come together and make collective efforts to alleviate the situation. However, even with these efforts, the situation may only be partially alleviated.
In 2022, China's total population experienced negative growth for the first time in 60 years, and the number of newborns nationwide fell below 10 million for the first time, reaching 9.56 million.
This data is only 50.77% of the figure recorded in 2016, which was a year when there was a surge in births due to the "second-child policy."
The birth rate has continuously dropped below 1% for three consecutive years, significantly affecting maternity departments in hospitals.
A recent visit by "Chinese Philanthropist" magazine found a rapid decline in the number of registered pregnant women (referred to as "建档" in China, meaning women registered as having successfully conceived, and are listed in a nationwide networked system). Some secondary branch hospitals even reported a decrease of one-third in the number of registered pregnancies. The reduction in the number of maternity departments is already evident in large comprehensive hospitals and lower-tier medical institutions.
The contraction of the maternal and infant industry is also evident. In the first half of 2022, 30,000 maternal and infant stores in China closed. The total financing amount in the maternal and infant industry for the entire year of 2022 shrank by over 80% compared to the previous year.
Recently, a National People's Congress (NPC) representative proposed amending relevant laws to moderately relax restrictions on unmarried women for procedures such as egg freezing (oocyte cryopreservation) and other assisted reproductive technologies.
In a society like China, where family and cultural values are relatively traditional, such proposals are not easily put forward except in critical situations.
The unexpectedly accelerated decline in birth rates and the trend of aging before affluence are both contributing to an accelerated increase in the dependency ratio in China. This will further weaken the country's basic pension and medical security systems. With a shrinking number of contributors to the system and an increasing number of beneficiaries, the burden on the pension system continues to grow.
Currently, some naïve ideas circulate among the Chinese public, assuming that as the population gradually decreases, the scarcity of educational resources will vanish. They believe that there will be no need to compete for school placements, and small-sized classes will become universally accessible, fulfilling the long-desired wish of parents.
However, the reality is different. When market demand contracts, the supply side of resources also begins to shrink. Consequently, we have witnessed a wave of closures in kindergartens and primary schools.
In 2022, over 5,600 kindergartens closed due to insufficient enrollment, marking the first negative growth in the number of kindergartens in nearly 15 years. This wave of closures has also spread to primary schools.
Data from the Ministry of Education indicates that last year, more than 10,000 kindergartens and primary schools were closed nationwide, and even some new second-tier cities in southwestern provinces experienced situations where kindergarten enrollments were zero. One can only imagine the situation in a large number of kindergartens in fourth and fifth-tier cities.
Next, it may be the turn of middle schools, high schools, and even universities, where a surplus of teachers is also likely to occur. According to the calculations of Qiao Jinzhong, a professor at Beijing Normal University, based on the current teacher-to-student ratio standard, the country will face an excess of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers over the next 12 years.
When an oversupply of personnel occurs, the once highly stable image of the "teacher" profession in Chinese society will also be squeezed before the wheels of time.
Given the current situation, I believe it's challenging to solve the issue solely through short-term policies encouraging childbirth. Instead, it requires both the government and the public to come together and consider long-term efforts in areas related to housing, education, healthcare, and people's income.
Let me explain with an example. Lately, an increasing number of young people have been expressing their dissatisfaction with the phenomenon of unruly children in public places. Such news frequently trends on social media platforms.
The reason behind these conflicting emotions and opinions may be linked to societal expectations. Contemporary writer, Hesenbao, makes a pertinent observation on this matter:
"There is a pervasive 'live for today, not tomorrow' atmosphere in today's society, where people tend to abandon expectations and long-term planning for the future, focusing instead on short-term pleasures. Anything contrary to this attitude will be met with rejection. Bearing and raising children require a long-term investment and commitment, demanding considerable time and energy. With more and more young people unwilling to make such an investment, it becomes difficult to expect them to empathize and understand from the perspective of 'one day, they will become parents too.'"
What's even more worrying is the abundance of young people on social media who resort to insults and mockery towards those planning to get married and have children.
Therefore, rather than solely encouraging childbirth, it is essential to instill confidence in the younger generation regarding their own future and that of their offspring. This requires a holistic approach to address societal challenges and create a stable and secure environment that encourages positive family planning decisions.